HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF NARAN DAM SITE

Abstract

This study investigates the hydrological drought and flood frequency at the Naran Dam site on the Kunhar River. The research aims to support hydro energy generation while addressing the water resource management challenges posed by extreme hydrological events. Drought analysis using the Mean Annual Flow (MAF) method, low-frequency analysis, and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) from 1990 to 2020 revealed fluctuations in wet and drought years, with four severe drought years recorded between 2010 and 2020. Monthly SDI analysis showed 10 extremely wet, 144 normal, 53 mild droughts, and 4 extremely drought months. Low-frequency analysis indicated a 32% occurrence of low flows (3.1–6 m³/s), with minimum flows progressively decreasing in recent years, and for a return period of 2 to 1000 years, low flows ranged from 4.39 to 84.02 m³/s. Flood frequency analysis using the Log-Pearson Type III method estimated flood discharges of 193 to 1260 m³/s for return periods of 2 to 1000 years, making it the best-fitted model among the probability distribution methods analyzed.